Everton FC
Chelsea FCEverton FC vs Chelsea FC: evidence-led pre-match analysis
The independent model ranks Everton FC first, 32.7 percentage points ahead of the next outcome. Venue-specific records, last-five form, opposition mix and contrary evidence determine how much weight that ranking deserves.
1. Central judgement and its margin
The model assigns home win 55.2%, draw 22.5% and away win 22.3%. Everton FC ranks first, ahead of the next outcome by 32.7 percentage points. The remaining outcomes still total 44.8%. The relative lead is meaningful within the model, but substantial probability remains elsewhere. Everton FC are 5th on 10 points from 6 matches; Chelsea FC are 6th on 10 from 6. Season points per game are 1.67 and 1.67. Equal overall returns make venue and opposition context particularly important.
2. Venue-specific attack and defence
Everton FC at home: 2 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses in 3 games; 7 points, 5 goals scored and 2 conceded. That means 2.33 points, 1.67 goals and 0.67 conceded per game. Chelsea FC away: 1 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in 3; 3 points, 4 goals and 7 conceded, or 1.00, 1.33 and 2.33 per game respectively. The relevant venue points-per-game gap is 1.33 (home side minus away side). Compare home scoring with away conceding, and away scoring with home conceding, rather than treating either attack in isolation. Clean sheets are 2/3 at home and 0/3 away. These outcomes contextualise defensive results, but such small samples cannot establish tactical systems or measured chance quality.
Read full original analysis →Analysis cutoff: 15/10/2026, 14:41:27 MYT