Fulham FC
Hull City AFCFulham FC vs Hull City AFC: evidence-led pre-match analysis
The independent model ranks Hull City AFC first, 5.5 percentage points ahead of the next outcome. Venue-specific records, last-five form, opposition mix and contrary evidence determine how much weight that ranking deserves.
1. Central judgement and its margin
The model assigns home win 35.6%, draw 23.4% and away win 41.1%. Hull City AFC ranks first, ahead of the next outcome by 5.5 percentage points. The remaining outcomes still total 58.9%. This is a close ordering, not evidence of a clear quality gap. Fulham FC are 20th on 2 points from 6 matches; Hull City AFC are 8th on 9 from 6. Season points per game are 0.33 and 1.50. The difference describes results already achieved; it is not itself a probability forecast.
2. Venue-specific attack and defence
Fulham FC at home: 0 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses in 3 games; 1 points, 5 goals scored and 7 conceded. That means 0.33 points, 1.67 goals and 2.33 conceded per game. Hull City AFC away: 1 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses in 3; 4 points, 4 goals and 4 conceded, or 1.33, 1.33 and 1.33 per game respectively. The relevant venue points-per-game gap is -1.00 (home side minus away side). Compare home scoring with away conceding, and away scoring with home conceding, rather than treating either attack in isolation. Clean sheets are 0/3 at home and 1/3 away. These outcomes contextualise defensive results, but such small samples cannot establish tactical systems or measured chance quality.
Read full original analysis →Analysis cutoff: 15/10/2026, 14:41:27 MYT