AFC Bournemouth
Sunderland AFCAFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland AFC: evidence-led pre-match analysis
The independent model ranks AFC Bournemouth first, 11.7 percentage points ahead of the next outcome. Venue-specific records, last-five form, opposition mix and contrary evidence determine how much weight that ranking deserves.
1. Central judgement and its margin
The model assigns home win 44.1%, draw 23.4% and away win 32.5%. AFC Bournemouth ranks first, ahead of the next outcome by 11.7 percentage points. The remaining outcomes still total 55.9%. The relative lead is meaningful within the model, but substantial probability remains elsewhere. AFC Bournemouth are 18th on 3 points from 6 matches; Sunderland AFC are 17th on 4 from 6. Season points per game are 0.50 and 0.67. The difference describes results already achieved; it is not itself a probability forecast.
2. Venue-specific attack and defence
AFC Bournemouth at home: 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses in 3 games; 2 points, 3 goals scored and 4 conceded. That means 0.67 points, 1.00 goals and 1.33 conceded per game. Sunderland AFC away: 0 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses in 3; 1 points, 5 goals and 8 conceded, or 0.33, 1.67 and 2.67 per game respectively. The relevant venue points-per-game gap is 0.34 (home side minus away side). Compare home scoring with away conceding, and away scoring with home conceding, rather than treating either attack in isolation. Clean sheets are 0/3 at home and 0/3 away. These outcomes contextualise defensive results, but such small samples cannot establish tactical systems or measured chance quality.
Read full original analysis →Analysis cutoff: 15/10/2026, 14:41:27 MYT